Jpm_mexico_2021-05-14_3745630

  • Uploaded by: La Politica Online
  • 0
  • 0
  • May 2021
  • PDF
Download

This article was submit by member and they agreed that they have the permission to submit it. If you own the copyright of this article and want to remove it from our site, please report to us by using this DMCA form. Report DMCA


Overview

Download & View Jpm_mexico_2021-05-14_3745630 as PDF for free.

More details

  • Words: 4,298
  • Pages: 5
  • Size: 262.7KB
Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero Gabriel Lozano (52-55) 5540-9558 [email protected]

Economic Research Global Data Watch May 14, 2021

Economic Research Note

Mexico: Midterms likely to confirm Morena's consolidation  Lower Chamber and 15 gubernatorial elections are key in June 6 midterms  Morena will probably retain its majority but will struggle to reach two-thirds without allies  Economic momentum and vaccination progress should work in favor of the president’s party  Election is key to understand the president’s leeway on fiscal and institutional changes Midterm elections in Mexico will take place on June 6. The full Lower Chamber of Congress (500 members) is up for election as are 15 gubernatorial seats (out of 32); and local lawmakers. While there are 91 million registered voters in the country, only 65% vote on average in federal elections, and 52% in the midterms. This time, low participation should not surprise, given pandemic fears. In 2018, the commanding victory of Andrés M. Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and his populist Morena party was rooted in his promises to fight corruption and crime and to partially reverse the multi-party Pact of 2012 that paved the way for structural reforms (for a detailed political-economy discussion see: Mexico 101 and “The politics and economics of the pandemic in Mexico”). AMLO won with 53% of the vote, and Morena reached a simple majority in both chambers, and a nearconstitutional majority with the support of small parties that have aligned their preferences with Morena (Figure 1). Figure 1: Current Congress composition by coalition 70

60

67

Figure 2: Trust in institutions Grade, 10 is highest level of trust Political Parties Lawmakers* Police INE** SCJ** Businessmen Presidency Social Media Universities Army 0

Average

2

4

6

8

10

Source: Consulta Mitfsky 2020. *Low-Chamber or Deputies House; **Electoral Institute; ***Supreme Court of Justice

While AMLO’s approval has been declining steadily since peaking in early 2019, it remains above 50% despite last year’s pandemic-induced recession (-8.2%). Worth noting, the 20%-pt decline in his approval already makes AMLO less popular than right-wing Calderon was at the same point of his term (2009) right in the middle of the GFC (Figure 3). Figure 3: Presidential approval leading up to midterm elections % 90 80

VFQ '00-'06 (PAN)

FCH '06-'12(PAN)

EPN '12-'18 (PRI)

AMLO '18-'24(MORENA)

70 60 50

Senate

% of total

date of the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJ) president, but with little progress on corruption and crime—even with the president expanding the army’s participation in construction and vaccination campaigns. Political parties and lawmakers are still poorly regarded by the population while the army and the president continues to top “trust in institutions” polls (Figure 2).

Deputies

Constitutional majority (66%+1)

40 30 0

60

2

4

6

8

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Source: Oraculus Poll of Polls. As of April 2021

50 40

32

30

Simple majority (50%+1) 27

Figure 4: Who is to blame for the economic downturn? %

20

7

10

6

60

56

50

0 Morena*

Main opposition bloc

Others**

Source: INE and J.P. Morgan. *Including allies. **MC and independent

The composition of Congress and a strong executive branch paved the way for three years of partial backtracking of some reforms via changes in bylaws, which only require a simple majority. In the energy sector, swift approval of AMLO’s preferred infrastructure projects, and plans to extend the man-

40

29

30 20

10

10 0 The pandemic

AMLO

State's governor

Source: Reforma Newspaper, Apr 16, 2021

1

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero Gabriel Lozano (52-55) 5540-9558 [email protected]

Economic Research Mexico May 14, 2021

It is remarkable that the president remains so popular after last year’s economic contraction. Perhaps the fact that people blame the pandemic, not AMLO, for the economic downturn (Figure 4) explains his approval, but it complicates the election outlook for Morena (Figure 5; Table 1).

for this year consistently revised up since the beginning of the year, we believe Morena/AMLO will consolidate its power, and will continue to move forward with a populist agenda.

Figure 5: Perception of government's management of the pandemic % 60

58

40

32

20

11

0 Success

Failure

Doesn't know

Source: El Financiero, June 2020

As noted before, people tend to dislike lawmakers and political parties—which probably explains the lower turnover in midterms—and with AMLO not on the ballot, the results will probably be tighter than expected. This is why AMLO tried hard to conduct the recall referendum on the day of the midterms, as his communication style has helped to maintain strong support from Morena’s hard-core voters. The proposal of a two-year extension of the mandate of the SCJ president is raising concerns AMLO will use the referendum for the same purpose. He will now have to wait until 1H22 to conduct the referendum. Morena is also concerned because the main opposition parties formed a coalition in local and federal elections (Figure 6). The collapse of an urban train bypass in Mexico City—a Morena stronghold—is expected to affect Morena at the municipal level at the very least. Figure 6: Vote intention for Lower Chamber % 50

41

40 30

"Va por México VxM" opposition coalition for '21

19

20

17

12 5

10

5

0 Morena

PRI

PAN

PRD

MC

Pro-AMLO*

Source: Oraculus Poll of Polls. Effective preference (excludes no response). *Either officially declared or de facto allies to Morena. As of May 2021

It is difficult to tell if the pandemic will work against Morena in the elections, but we believe the decline in new cases and the gradual reopening of the economy (Figure 7), will allow Morena to hold on to its majority. With growth expectations 2

It seems like Morena will gain six States at least, retain power in one, and has front-runners in three more. Six gubernatorial races are too close to call. This could bring Morena close to controlling 50% of the 32 states, as it already has seven. Worth noting, Morena already has the majority in 18 out of 32 local congresses. A constitutional change requires the support of two-thirds majorities of both chambers and simple majority in 50%+1 of local congresses. Backtracking structural reforms (e.g., energy, telecom) requires constitutional majorities, although the constitutional implications of the recall referendum are less clear. Figure 7: Mobility versus new cases - end of month % avg weekly change (cases), end of month 60 Apr 20 (0.5%, +58%) Mar 20 40 (-37%, +282%) Sep 20 (-0.1%, -0.7%)

20 0

Mar 21 (4%, -12%)

Apr 21 (-1%, +3%)

-20 -5

0

5 10 % avg weekly change (mobility), end of month

Source: Our World in Data, Apple and J.P. Morgan. As of April 2021

Table 1: Mexico midterm elections - Gubernatorial races State Baja California BCS Campeche Chihuahua Colima Guerrero Michoacán Nayarit Nuevo Leon Queretaro SLP Sinaloa Sonora Tlaxcala Zacatecas

Party in power Morena PAN PRI PAN PRI PRI PRD PAN Independent PAN PRI PRI PRI PRI PRI

Front-runner (vote intention) Morena (43%) VxM* - PAN (51%) VxM - PRI (34%) VxM - PAN (40%) Morena (37%) Morena (34%) Morena (38%) Morena (40%) MC (29%) VxM - PAN (49%) Morena allies (36%) Morena (48%) Morena (46%) Morena (44%) Morena (46%)

Runner-up VxM - PAN (28%) Morena (30%) MC (31%) Morena (34%) VxM - PRI (28%) VxM - PRI (30%) VxM - PRD (37%) VxM - PAN (32%) VxM - PRI (27%) Morena (27%) VxM - PAN (34%) VxM - PRI (35%) VxM - PRI (37%) VxM - PRI (36%) VxM - PRI (34%)

Source: El Financiero. May, 2021. *Va por Mexico (VxM) is the opposition bloc. Underscored parties are States where there would be continuity; shaded cells show States too close to call

While it is possible that AMLO turns more pragmatic regardless of the result, delivering a fiscal reform as soon as September, the first half of AMLO’s mandate has brought a degree of institutional deterioration, with the government promoting less competition, the dilution of autonomous entities, and a more confrontational stance with USMCA partners.

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero Gabriel Lozano (52-55) 5540-9558 [email protected]

Economic Research Global Data Watch May 14, 2021

Analysts' Compensation: The research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues.

Other Disclosures J.P. Morgan is a marketing name for investment banking businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. Any long form nomenclature for references to China; Hong Kong; Taiwan; and Macau within this research material are Mainland China; Hong Kong SAR (China); Taiwan (China); and Macau SAR (China). Changes to Interbank Offered Rates (IBORs) and other benchmark rates: Certain interest rate benchmarks are, or may in the future become, subject to ongoing international, national and other regulatory guidance, reform and proposals for reform. For more information, please consult: https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/disclosures/interbank_offered_rates Private Bank Clients: Where you are receiving research as a client of the private banking businesses offered by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries (“J.P. Morgan Private Bank”), research is provided to you by J.P. Morgan Private Bank and not by any other division of J.P. Morgan, including, but not limited to, the J.P. Morgan Corporate and Investment Bank and its Global Research division. Legal entity responsible for the production and distribution of research: The legal entity identified below the name of the Reg AC Research Analyst who authored this material is the legal entity responsible for the production of this research. Where multiple Reg AC Research Analysts authored this material with different legal entities identified below their names, these legal entities are jointly responsible for the production of this research. Research Analysts from various J.P. Morgan affiliates may have contributed to the production of this material but may not be licensed to carry out regulated activities in your jurisdiction (and do not hold themselves out as being able to do so). Unless otherwise stated below, this material has been distributed by the legal entity responsible for production. If you have any queries, please contact the relevant Research Analyst in your jurisdiction or the entity in your jurisdiction that has distributed this research material. Legal Entities Disclosures and Country-/Region-Specific Disclosures: Argentina: JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A Sucursal Buenos Aires is regulated by Banco Central de la República Argentina (“BCRA”- Central Bank of Argentina) and Comisión Nacional de Valores (“CNV”- Argentinian Securities Commission” - ALYC y AN Integral N°51). Australia: J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (“JPMSAL”) (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and is a Market, Clearing and Settlement Participant of ASX Limited and CHI-X. This material is issued and distributed in Australia by or on behalf of JPMSAL only to "wholesale clients" (as defined in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001). A list of all financial products covered can be found by visiting https://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures. J.P. Morgan seeks to cover companies of relevance to the domestic and international investor base across all Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sectors, as well as across a range of market capitalisation sizes. If applicable, in the course of conducting public side due diligence on the subject company(ies), the Research Analyst team may at times perform such diligence through corporate engagements such as site visits, discussions with company representatives, management presentations, etc. Research issued by JPMSAL has been prepared in accordance with J.P. Morgan Australia’s Research Independence Policy which can be found at the following link: J.P. Morgan Australia - Research Independence Policy. Brazil: Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Ombudsman J.P. Morgan: 0800-7700847 / [email protected] Canada: J.P. Morgan Securities Canada Inc. is a registered investment dealer, regulated by the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Ontario Securities Commission and is the participating member on Canadian exchanges. This material is distributed in Canada by or on behalf of J.P.Morgan Securities Canada Inc. Chile: Inversiones J.P. Morgan Limitada is an unregulated entity incorporated in Chile. China: J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited has been approved by CSRC to conduct the securities investment consultancy business. Dubai: JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and its registered address is Dubai International Financial Centre - The Gate, West Wing, Level 3 and 9 PO Box 506551, Dubai, UAE. This material has been distributed to persons regarded as professional clients or market counterparties as defined under the DFSA rules. European Economic Area (EEA): Unless specified to the contrary, research is distributed in the EEA by J.P. Morgan AG (“JPM AG”), which is a member of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, is authorised by the European Central Bank (“ECB”) and is regulated by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). JPM AG is a company incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany with a registered office at Taunustor 1, 60310 Frankfurt am Main, the Federal Republic of Germany. The material has been distributed in the EEA to persons regarded as professional investors (or equivalent) pursuant to Art. 4 para. 1 no. 10 and Annex II of MiFID II and its respective implementation in their home jurisdictions (“EEA professional investors”). This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not EEA professional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this material relates is only available to EEA relevant persons and will be engaged in only with EEA relevant persons. Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong, and J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited (CE number AAB027) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong (CE Number AAL996) is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission, is organized under the laws of the United States with limited liability. India: J.P. Morgan India Private Limited (Corporate Identity Number U67120MH1992FTC068724), having its registered office at J.P. Morgan Tower, Off. C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Santacruz - East, Mumbai – 400098, is registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as a ‘Research Analyst’ having registration number INH000001873. J.P. Morgan India Private Limited is also registered with SEBI as a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and the Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (SEBI Registration Number – INZ000239730) and as a Merchant Banker (SEBI Registration Number - MB/INM000002970). Telephone: 91-22-6157 3000, Facsimile: 91-22-6157 3990 and Website: www.jpmipl.com. JPMorgan Chase Bank, 3

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero Gabriel Lozano (52-55) 5540-9558 [email protected]

Economic Research Mexico May 14, 2021

N.A. - Mumbai Branch is licensed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) (Licence No. 53/ Licence No. BY.4/94; SEBI - IN/CUS/014/ CDSL : IN-DP-CDSL-444-2008/ IN-DP-NSDL-285-2008/ INBI00000984/ INE231311239) as a Scheduled Commercial Bank in India, which is its primary license allowing it to carry on Banking business in India and other activities, which a Bank branch in India are permitted to undertake. For non-local research material, this material is not distributed in India by J.P. Morgan India Private Limited. Indonesia: PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the OJK a.k.a. BAPEPAM LK. Korea: J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul Branch, is a member of the Korea Exchange (KRX). JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Seoul Branch, is licensed as a branch office of foreign bank (JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.) in Korea. Both entities are regulated by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS). For non-macro research material, the material is distributed in Korea by or through J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul Branch. Japan: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Tokyo Branch are regulated by the Financial Services Agency in Japan. Malaysia: This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-X), which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and holds a Capital Markets Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Mexico: J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.and J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero are members of the Mexican Stock Exchange and are authorized to act as a broker dealer by the National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission. New Zealand: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to "wholesale clients" (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008). JPMSAL is registered as a Financial Service Provider under the Financial Service providers (Registration and Dispute Resolution) Act of 2008. Pakistan: J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Philippines: J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines Inc. is a Trading Participant of the Philippine Stock Exchange and a member of the Securities Clearing Corporation of the Philippines and the Securities Investor Protection Fund. It is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Russia: CB J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC is regulated by the Central Bank of Russia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by or through J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited (JPMSS) [MCI (P) 018/04/2020 and Co. Reg. No.: 199405335R], which is a member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited, and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch (JPMCB Singapore) [MCI (P) 052/09/2020], both of which are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This material is issued and distributed in Singapore only to accredited investors, expert investors and institutional investors, as defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act, Cap. 289 (SFA). This material is not intended to be issued or distributed to any retail investors or any other investors that do not fall into the classes of “accredited investors,” “expert investors” or “institutional investors,” as defined under Section 4A of the SFA. Recipients of this material in Singapore are to contact JPMSS or JPMCB Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the material. As at the date of this material, JPMSS is a designated market maker for certain structured warrants listed on the Singapore Exchange where the underlying securities may be the securities discussed in this material. Arising from its role as a designated market maker for such structured warrants, JPMSS may conduct hedging activities in respect of such underlying securities and hold or have an interest in such underlying securities as a result. The updated list of structured warrants for which JPMSS acts as designated market maker may be found on the website of the Singapore Exchange Limited: http://www.sgx.com. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa Proprietary Limited and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Johannesburg Branch are members of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange and are regulated by the Financial Services Board. Taiwan: J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (company-type) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. Material relating to equity securities is issued and distributed in Taiwan by J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited, subject to the license scope and the applicable laws and the regulations in Taiwan. According to Paragraph 2, Article 7-1 of Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in Securities to Customers (as amended or supplemented) and/or other applicable laws or regulations, please note that the recipient of this material is not permitted to engage in any activities in connection with the material that may give rise to conflicts of interests, unless otherwise disclosed in the “Important Disclosures” in this material. Thailand: This material is issued and distributed in Thailand by JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Ltd., which is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission, and its registered address is 3rd Floor, 20 North Sathorn Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500. UK: Unless specified to the contrary, research is distributed in the UK by J.P. Morgan Securities plc (“JPMS plc”) which is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. JPMS plc is registered in England & Wales No. 2711006, Registered Office 25 Bank Street, London, E14 5JP. This material is directed in the UK only to: (a) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) (Order) 2005 (“the FPO”); (b) persons outlined in article 49 of the FPO (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations or partnerships, the trustees of high value trusts, etc.); or (c) any persons to whom this communication may otherwise lawfully be made; all such persons being referred to as "UK relevant persons". This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not UK relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this material relates is only available to UK relevant persons and will be engaged in only with UK relevant persons. Research issued by JPMS plc has been prepared in accordance with JPMS plc's policy for prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest related to the production of Research which can be found at the following link: J.P. Morgan EMEA - Research Independence Policy. U.S.: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”) is a member of the NYSE, FINRA, SIPC, and the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a member of the FDIC. Material published by non-U.S. affiliates is distributed in the U.S. by JPMS who accepts responsibility for its content. General: Additional information is available upon request. The information in this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated in this material are accurate and that the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reasonable, JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively J.P. Morgan) make no representations or warranties whatsoever to the completeness or accuracy of the material provided, except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and the Research Analyst's involvement with the issuer that is the subject of the material. Accordingly, no reliance should be placed on the accuracy, fairness or completeness of the information contained in this material. Any data discrepancies in this material could be the result of different calculations and/or adjustments. J.P. Morgan accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of 4

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero Gabriel Lozano (52-55) 5540-9558 [email protected]

Economic Research Global Data Watch May 14, 2021

this material or its contents, and neither J.P. Morgan nor any of its respective directors, officers or employees, shall be in any way responsible for the contents hereof, apart from the liabilities and responsibilities that may be imposed on them by the relevant regulatory authority in the jurisdiction in question, or the regulatory regime thereunder. Opinions, forecasts or projections contained in this material represent J.P. Morgan's current opinions or judgment as of the date of the material only and are therefore subject to change without notice. Periodic updates may be provided on companies/industries based on company-specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or projections, which represent only one possible outcome. Furthermore, such opinions, forecasts or projections are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that have not been verified, and future actual results or events could differ materially. The value of, or income from, any investments referred to in this material may fluctuate and/or be affected by changes in exchange rates. All pricing is indicative as of the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipients of this material must make their own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein and should seek advice from such independent financial, legal, tax or other adviser as they deem necessary. J.P. Morgan may trade as a principal on the basis of the Research Analysts’ views and research, and it may also engage in transactions for its own account or for its clients’ accounts in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this material, and J.P. Morgan is under no obligation to ensure that such other communication is brought to the attention of any recipient of this material. Others within J.P. Morgan, including Strategists, Sales staff and other Research Analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with those taken in this material. Employees of J.P. Morgan not involved in the preparation of this material may have investments in the securities (or derivatives of such securities) mentioned in this material and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in this material. This material is not an advertisement for or marketing of any issuer, its products or services, or its securities in any jurisdiction. "Other Disclosures" last revised April 17, 2021.

Copyright 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. #$J&098$#*P

5

Completed

14 May 2021 10:00 AM EDT

Disseminated 14 May 2021 10:00 AM EDT

More Documents from "La Politica Online"

El Manual
36 August 2021
Programa Registradas - Imp
13 September 2021
25 May 2021
22 May 2021