18926 Acf Al Memo

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November 9, 2021 Alabama Conservatives Fund Brock McCleary, VP Polling & John Rogers, Director of Client Strategy


Poll of 650 Republican Primary Voters, conducted November 3 - 4

Scope of Research Cygnal conducted a survey on October 21-22 prior to the advertising campaign of the Alabama Conservatives Fund (ACF). At that time, Mo Brooks led Katie Britt by a 26-14% margin in the race for U.S. Senate. Following ACF advertising, a second survey was conducted on November 4-5. Katie Britt pulls ahead in GOP Primary for Senate in Alabama Once Republican primary voters learned more about Katie Britt, she marched to the lead in the race for United States Senate (left). After trailing Congressman Mo Brooks by 12% on October 21-22, Britt has pulled ahead 24-22% in the survey conducted November 3-4. In addition to leading statewide, Britt now leads in the Birmingham DMA—the largest media market in the state— and in the Montgomery and Mobile media market regions. This indicates that while early polls have shown a lead for Brooks, that lead was built on a lack of competition. Once the voters learned who Katie Britt was and what she stood for, the dynamic of the race has fundamentally changed.

Britt extends lead to 6% in a runoff In late October, Brooks led Britt 34-26% in a runoff election ballot test. In the second survey, Britt has charged to a 35-29% lead (right). Britt has turned a deficit of 14% among men in late October into an 8% advantage. By media market region, Brooks’ 28% October lead in the Huntsville market has been swiftly cut to 15%. Britt has taken a 9% lead in the Birmingham market after previously trailing by the same margin two weeks ago. She has extended her October 3% edge in the Montgomery market to 18% and holds an 11% advantage in the Mobile media market. Primary voters tune into ACF’s advertising Prior to the ACF’s media campaign, 30% of likely primary voters had seen, read or heard something recently about Katie Britt (see left). The percentage of voters being reached on Britt’s behalf jumped to 49% in just two weeks.

METHODOLOGY: This probabilistic survey was conducted by Cygnal through an advanced multi-mode (SMS + IVR + Email) survey of likely Republican primary voters in Alabama, conducted November 3, 2021 – November 4, 2021. This survey has a sample size of n650 and a MoE of ±3.84% at a 95% confidence interval. ABOUT CYGNAL: Cygnal is an award-winning national public opinion and predictive analytics firm that pioneered multi-mode polling, peer-to-peer text collection, and Political Emotive Analysis. Cygnal is named the #1 Republican private pollster by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight two cycles running, as well as the #1 most accurate polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team members have worked in 47 states and countries on more than 2,100 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.

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